Newly crowned NXT champion Karrion Kross was forced to relinquish his belt after defeating Keith Lee at NXT TakeOver: XXX. The reason? A separated shoulder. With the yellow and black brand without a main card champion, this Tuesday's edition of NXT will see an Iron Man match for the NXT Championship.
This is no ordinary Iron Man match however, as there will be four competitors in total fighting for the vacant title. Johnny Gargano, Finn Balor, Adam Cole and Tommaso Ciampa headline what should be a Wrestlemania-like main event match. Who will win? What prop bets are available? Let's take a look at the opening betting odds provided by 888sport.
Match Winner Market
- Favorite: Finn Balor (+110)
- Underdog(s): Tommaso Ciampa (+167) / Adam Cole (+400) / Johnny Gargano (+400)
There are actually a lot of bets currently available for this match, so let's start simple. The match winner sees every superstar with plus-value, so there's really no wrong bet for those taking an early wager. However, Finn Balor has lost bettors a lot of money in recent matches with a championship stipulation. If this was a TakeOver event, I would be more keen on calling Balor a lock.
With all that said, WWE did seem to be heading down a Kross vs Balor path - which would've set up the eventual 'Demon' persona to appear for NXT's prince. If WWE elects to stay the course, it seems Balor winning the belt and holding it until Kross is healthy would be the most likely scenario.
If there is a desire for WWE to move Kross to either Raw or SmackDown, then perhaps Balor winning isn't as much of a lock as it appears. Looking outside Finn, there are working trends against all three remaining competitors. Ciampa has stated he wishes to work less, which doesn't fit the ideal schedule for a WWE champion.
Adam Cole and the Undisputed Era seem to be switching shows at any given notice, while Gargano is unlikely to win. Outside of Balor, Gargano has the least baggage in terms of being a champion currently - so he may be worth the long shot bet.
Gargano's odds might drop however, so for those who fancy a dark horse feel free to wait on Gargano for cheaper value. If you are keen on Balor, take him now as he should be the one to win this match (despite losing results in recent title-stipulated matches). Ciampa and Cole can be ignored all together until they provide better value, but of the two Ciampa is more likely to win.
NXT Championship Iron Man Match Prop Bets
- Total Number of Falls: ⬇️ 4.5 (-125)
- First Fall Winner: Ciampa (+140)
- Will Anyone Score OVER 2.5 Falls & Win: No (-190)
- Draw/Overtime: Yes (-150)
- Gargano More Falls > Cole: Yes (-134)
- Balor First Fall Before Cole: Yes (-134)
- Ciampa First Fall Before Gargano: Yes (-134)
The prop bets tell a story for how oddsmakers feel this match will play out, with specifics. The draw favored at -150 is quite telling, a strong indication we may see overtime between two or more of the competitors.
Also, the number of falls throughout the match favored to stay under five means we may not see many. In this four-way match, it would seem ideal that each superstar get at least one fall. If that occurs then the OVER 4.5 is guaranteed to hit, prompting an appealing underdog bet to consider.
Ciampa is favored to record a fall before Gargano does, along with scoring the match's first fall. The former is likely, but the latter is a toss up. There is value riddled all over the first fall winner market, but that is an incredibly difficult prediction to land.
For a 60 minute match however, it seems likely that there will be more than four falls - despite what odds say. If the match goes into overtime, as odds indicate, then we should see more than four falls. Any way you try to break down the props though, the truth is that everything here is very unpredictable.
Simple math points to the OVER hitting for 4.5 falls, but it does seem that after dissecting all the odds Finn Balor to win might be the best bet. He sees great value and gives WWE an easy booking route for the championship moving forward. Besides, Kross' injury should fly by pretty quickly - so bank on WWE still eyeing Balor vs Kross in the near future.
NXT Championship Iron Man Match Bets to Consider
- Finn Balor to win +110
- Total Falls OVER 4.5 -112
- Draw/Overtime -150