NXT TakeOver: XXX is only right around the corner, scheduled for the day prior to SummerSlam. During it, there is a big ladder match for the vacant NXT North American Championship. A total of six superstars will be competing for the prestigious title.
Entry slots are filling up quickly. The betting market is open though, as 888sport is providing odds for futures in Pro Wrestling.
With an early betting market, two things are going to be true. First, there is value everywhere. Even the odds-on favorite proves great value for any WWE bettor eyeing this market. Second, the odds will change - and because of that we have developed our very own NXT North American Championship tracker!
Let's take a look at the current odds for who will leave NXT TakeOver: XXX with the North American Championship.
NXT North American Championship Betting Odds Tracker
- ⬇️ Damian Priest (+225)
- ⬆️ Finn Balor (+225)
- ⬇️ Johnny Gargano (+350)
- ⬆️ Dominik Dijakovic (+400)
- ⬇️ Cameron Grimes (+550)
- ⬆️ Bronson Reed (+600)
- ⬆️ Ridge Holland (+600)
- ⬇️ Tommaso Ciampa (+1100)
- ⬇️ Velveteen Dream (+1100)
- ⬇️ Killian Dain (+5000)
Damian Priest remains the favorite, only this week he finds another superstar sharing leading odds. Finn Balor has inched his way into a co-favorite spot, opening weeks ago as the favorite at +167.
For any WWE bettor who took the early +167 odds, you can ease your mind a bit more with Balor back in the mix. For those who waited, patience is a virtue as the +225 odds provide much better value for the realistic chance Balor has to win.
I'm still very high on Priest, so focus on those two if betting this match. Gargano and the bottom of the ticket (Ciampa, Dream and Dain) see odds slightly drop, not much changing there.
Contrary, Reed and Holland both see a slight increase but nothing major or yet to concern yourself with. The two interesting odds movements this week are both Dominik Dijakovic inching up and Cameron Grimes inching down.
With many believing Dijakovic is leading the new Retribution faction in WWE, it would be fun to entertain the idea that he leads with the North American Championship. Both he and Grimes, despite the odds shift, still provide the some value outside of the co-favorites.
Implied Probability Movement Tracker
- Finn Balor (⬆️5.8%) current win probability: 30.8%
- Dominik Dijakovic (⬆️1.8%) current win probability: 20%
- Bronson Reed (⬆️1%) current win probability: 14.3%
- Ridge Holland (⬆️1%) current win probability: 14.3%
- Killian Dain (⬇️0.9%) current win probability: 2%
- Damian Priest (⬇️2.5%) current win probability: 30.8%
- Johnny Gargano (⬇️2.8%) current win probability: 22.2%
- Cameron Grimes (⬇️2.8%) current win probability: 15.4%
- Velveteen Dream (⬇️4.4%) current win probability: 4.3%
- Tommaso Ciampa (⬇️4.4%) current win probability: 4.3%
Not much has changed in terms of math when looking at implied probabilities to win. However, the most noticeable names here are both Finn Balor and Dominik Dijakovic. With rumors of Dijakovic's possible new role added with the star-studded name of Balor, it's easy to see why oddsmakers have moved these two up the list.
As a result of their rise, Damian Priest's odds take a slight dip but still favored. Cameron Grimes' probability to win also takes a slight hit as a result of Dijakovic's rise, providing even more value for those who fancy the top hat wearing superstar.
The biggest surprise isn't much of a surprise though, in that Ridge Holland's odds have gone up. Kushida takes on Cameron Grimes and a mystery opponent in a qualifier match on Wednesday night. It seems oddsmakers are sold the mystery participant is either Balor, Dijakovic, Gargano or Holland. Kushida isn't even on the betting ticket, so his odds to win should be tossed aside.
The mystery participant could be Ciampa or Dream as well, and if so their current odds are by far the best bet on the current board. It's doubtful that Ciampa would win the belt if he returns though, along with Dream due to unknown legal issues. It's probably wise to avoid the continually dropping odds of Dream and Ciampa. Dain is different story, and worth a look out of the three for long shot bettors.
NXT North American Championship Betting Tips
The obvious tip here is to wait, but then you won't see value. So let's use this opportunity to advise those who want to have a little fun and see potential value. If you want to wait a few more weeks or avoid this market all together, that's perfectly fine. To each their own when betting.
For those still with us, let's look at some good value bets to make now, and why. I will continue to bang the beat of Damian Priest's drum until he loses the match. He seems to be a perfect candidate for the championship and has seen his odds cut in half every week.
Balor seemed to be avoidable a week ago, but now poses serious consideration with odds to win at +225. More so than Gargano at least, as Balor presents the best shot (and odds) of the current superstars available to pick and yet to qualify for the match. Grimes is a fun thought, but probably won't win and not yet entered so he should probably be avoided.
Besides Balor, Dijakovic is worth a bet for superstars available but not yet entered in the match. Everyone else (outside Priest) seems avoidable at this point. As the week's have progressed it seems the best candidates with only a week or so remaining are Priest, Balor or Dijakovic - bet at your own risk.
One final note, as it seems that whoever is the mystery opponent in Wednesday's match has odds to win over 80%. That is likely Balor, Dijakovic, Gargano or Holland - so if you fancy any of those names then now its the time to take them. Their odds will become much more expensive after this match. Ciampa, Dream or Dain could also be the surprise - and if so Dain is the best choice of those three. Good luck!