NXT TakeOver returns this weekend, on a slightly different night than usual, airing this Sunday instead of the typical Saturday. A total of five matches see current betting odds available, along with many props surrounding the event.
Let's see what the oddsmakers over at 888sport are offering, and how to approach betting Sunday's event. This is the friendly reminder that betting on pro wrestling is only legal in the U.K.
Kushida vs Velveteen Dream Betting Odds
- Favorite: Dream (-177) - Winning Probability: 63.9%
- Underdog: Kushida (+125) - Winning Probability: 44.4%
- Time: ⬇️ 13 minutes (-139)
This is an interesting match to consider betting on, as Kushida should be your only real consideration here. Although Dream is the favorite and will more than likely win this match, his -177 odds are very passable unless you fancy a parlay on Sunday.
Between the NFL, NASCAR, multiple soccer leagues, the NBA Finals and the WNBA Finals there are plenty of options to parlay with Velveteen Dream (and others as we'll get too). However, there is a real chance Kushida wins on Sunday with respectable odds (despite underdog value).
Although Kushida is the underdog, his winning probability is close to 50% and many fans are unhappy with Velveteen Dream. If WWE elects to build a new star in Kushida, a win here is possible. For the value Kushida is given he's worth a shot if you think his push is coming, otherwise take Dream in a parlay for cheaper value.
Betting Tip: Kushida to win at +125 or parlay Dream to win at -177 with whatever else you like
Santos Escobar vs Isaiah Scott Betting Odds
- Favorite: Escobar (-190) - Winning Probability: 65.5%
- Underdog: Scott (+134) - Winning Probability: 42.7%
- Time: ⬇️ 13 minutes (-134)
This is the second straight match in which the underdog presents great value to consider. This is also the second straight match in which the favorite presents odds to possibly parlay with.
Much like the match already discussed, the favorite (Escobar) should win but there is a small possibility the underdog actually takes it. Scott, much like Kushida, has odds that are near 50% - implying that oddsmakers see this match as a toss up in some regards.
If you're feeling risky and like what Scott has brought to the table thus far, feel free to take him. His plus-value is worth the shot, although I personally like Escobar here. Perhaps the most underrated talent and faction in pro wrestling today, Santos Escobar has been nothing short of spectacular in both his matches and promos.
Despite hoisting the Cruiserweight Championship with little-to-no media recognition, Santos Escobar is very well on his way to becoming a top star in the WWE. When will that happen? Who knows, but if Escobar drops the strap to Scott on Sunday it means WWE is ready to push him sooner than anyone may have expected.
With the WWE draft approaching, taking the belt off Escobar and moving his stable to the main roster is possible. If that occurs, Scott once again presents great plus-value to win. I will be picking and rooting for Escobar but there's no argument in taking Scott here. Bet with your heart here or don't bet at all, there's no wrong answer.
Betting Tip: Scott to win at +134 or parlay Escobar at -190 with whatever else you like
Damian Priest vs Johnny Gargano Betting Odds
- Favorite: Preist (-278) - Winning Probability: 73.5%
- Underdog: Gargano (+190) - Winning Probability: 34.5%
- Time: Split at 17 minutes (-118)
- Method: Pin (-910)
We can just go ahead and skip right on over that method market, as -910 is far too expensive for any consideration. However, a submission (verbal tap, pass out or towel throw in) to win this match has odds at +400 while any other result is +325. Either one is worth the bet but of the two perhaps any other result is more considerable.
If NXT wants this rivalry to continue then a no finish is always possible. For value at +325 its worth a thought, although the pinfall occurring is strongly suggested in the odds. It seems Priest is likely to win the match, as Gargano has one of the worst records in NXT TakeOver history (despite putting on the most match of the nights).
This is a great match to sit back and enjoy, while not stressing yourself out over a bet. Expect match of the night between these two, but don't except an upset victory for Gargano. The best underdog play in this match lies within the method market, but for +190 I won't argue any Gargano fan who fancies the rebel heart.
Betting Tip: Any other result in method market at +325 or avoid this match
Io Shirai vs Candice LeRae Betting Odds
- Favorite: Shirai (-250) - Winning Probability: 71.4%
- Underdog: LeRae (+175) - Winning Probability: 36.4%
- Time: Split at 17 minutes (-118)
- Method: Pin (-500)
The idea that both Gargano and LeRae leave Sunday's show as champions is fun to play with. The fact that both are underdogs, it's also hard not to consider taking both in a makeshift parlay. The reality is, however, that Io Shirai is a dominant champion and it's difficult to see her lose the belt before Survivor Series.
When discussing the champions for all three WWE shows, one has to consider what the matches will look like at Survivor Series - an event where all the champions face each other. Think of Survivor Series as WWE's 'All-Star Game' where they want the top names to be champions for 'fantasy-like' matches on a major event card.
So when it comes to the NXT Women's Championship it only makes sense to believe the WWE wants Io Shirai in the women's triple threat match instead of Candice LeRae. Yes, there is still Hell in a Cell to be aired before Survivor Series in November. However, that is a main roster show as this TakeOver event is the last big show for NXT before Survivor Series. It's also unlikely Shirai wins back the belt just one night before Survivor Series, giving the company no promotion for the eventual women's match.
Unless Shirai wins back her title during a weekly NXT show, it's unlikely LeRae wins on Sunday. Remember when Jinder Mahal was champion? WWE had Mahal vs Brock Lesnar set for Survivor Series, but A.J. Styles was on the roster. It only made sense for WWE to swap the belt from Mahal to Styles in order to garner a Styles vs Lesnar match at Survivor Series.
So in terms of thinking ahead, Shirai should win on Sunday as WWE would rather have her compete at Survivor Series over LeRae. Now, taking Shirai to win this match (in terms of betting) should only be considered in a parlay situation. Taking -250 is expensive by itself, although Shirai should win.
Betting Tip: Parlay Shirari at -250 with whatever else you like
Finn Balor vs Kyle O'Reilly Betting Odds
- Favorite: Balor (-1000) - Winning Probability: 90.9%
- Underdog: O'Reilly (+500) - Winning Probability: 16.7%
- Time: ⬆️ 23 minutes (-125)
For odds to win a match at +500, Kyle O'Reilly is worth a shot here. Essentially, you are paying $100 to win back $600 ($500 plus the wagered $100) if the lethal Undisputed Era member wins. An absolute long shot though as Balor should win, but this is the WWE and it's hard to argue against any underdog paying out that much money for such a low risk.
Many believe a possible Evolution angle may occur. Back when Evolution was a stable, Randy Orton won the championship only for Triple H to turn on him. That is very possible here between O'Reilly and Adam Cole, but that would mean O'Reilly would have to actually beat Finn Balor.
So the question becomes can KOR pull off the upset? Probably not, as Balor is glorified as the greatest superstar in NXT history. Balor just won the belt back and for the high status of his character, it's unlikely he would lose it so quickly to a tag team competitor.
If WWE has plans to disperse Undisputed Era then KOR winning is a great take, but the stable makes them too much money (much like New Day) so it's unlikely they split. KOR does have the numbers game though, as Undisputed Era may try to help KOR win. However, this may be a situation KOR asks his teammates to stay backstage and fans are actually delivered a classic one-on-one match with little-to-no gimmicks.
The booking can go two ways here - no gimmicks in which Balor wins a hard fought match or interference from Undisputed Era in which KOR picks up the upset win. I'm going with the former here, although +500 is absolutely worth taking for the latter to occur if you have some house money to play with.
Betting Tip: O'Reilly to win at +500 or avoid this match