WWE NXT TakeOver: XXX Betting Odds & Tips

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We have finally reached the eve of SummerSlam, the night of NXT TakeOver: XXX. There are six total matches scheduled for the event, all of which provided betting odds from the bookmakers at 888sport. 

Let's check out who's favored to win, where value lies for WWE bettors and overall thoughts for tonight's big event. The usual reminder, that WWE betting is only legal in the U.K. but still fun to discuss for Americans. 

NXT Tag Team Championship Number 1 Contender Betting Odds

  • Favorite: Oney Lorcan & Danny Burch (-167)
  • Underdog: El Legado del Fantasma (+400)
  • Concedes: El Legado del Fantasma (-177)

Value is riddled all over the betting ticket for this match, as even the favorites Lorcan & Burch provide some inexpensive value. Granted, -167 is a bit high for a triple threat match. There are three main reasons it seems WWE bettors should side with the favorites here.

First, the current WWE NXT Tag Team title holders (Imperium) are villains. As heels, it is very rare to see another heel team challenge for the belts. Avoiding a heel vs heel booking, it seems the underdog odds for El Legado del Fantasma are somewhat justified.  

Second, Breezango and El Legado del Fantasma are in a current rivalry. WWE has no issues stopping a story right in the middle of telling it, which could be the case if Breezango or Legado were to win. 

Third, Lorcan and Burch have put on Match of the Night performances (almost routinely) despite the low publicity they receive. Lorcan and Burch have been in the tag team picture for a long time now, as their 'workhorse' efforts might finally reach full fruition in the near future. 

Betting Advice: Take the favorite Lorcan and Burch at -167 if it seems inexpensive to you

Finn Balor vs Timothy Thatcher Betting Odds

  • Favorite: Balor (-230)
  • Underdog: Thatcher (+160)
  • Time: ⬆️ 14 minutes (-118)

This match seems to be closer than the current odds suggest, as Thatcher actually opened with minus-value. Despite opening with odds to win over 50%, Thatcher is now under 50% as Balor's odds continue to rise.

It's difficult to see Thatcher win here, despite the praise he receives both backstage and from fans. Thatcher is without a doubt more of a long-term project, as this match is mainly going to be used in giving him ring experience for a big show against a top veteran. Consider this a learning situation for Thatcher in the eyes of WWE management. 

Balor however seems like he will be next in line to challenge for the NXT Championship. It makes sense that a guy who has won 11 of his last 12 NXT TakeOver matches would not only win this match, but then move on to face Kross/Lee.

Betting Advice: Avoid this match as Balor is too expensive.

Io Shirai vs Dakota Kai Betting Odds

  • Favorite: Shiari (-1000)
  • Underdog: Kai (+500)
  • Title Holder to End Event: Shirai (-1430)
  • Time: ⬇️ 14 minutes (-155)

This is an open and shut case, as Shirai should see the victory. There was an entertaining notion that Kai could win, and build a Shawn Michaels-Diesel type of relationship between her and Raquel Gonzalez. 

Now that the Gonzalez-Kai relationship seems to be done for, so does Kai's chances to become NXT Women's Champion (at least for tonight). Shirai has been overly impressive since undergoing her new character change last year, and it seems sensible to keep the belt on her until further notice.

Betting Advice: Avoid Shirai but feel free to consider Kai for plus-value. She won't win, but if you have extra change or house money to play with - feel free to use it on Kai.

Adam Cole vs Pat McAfee Betting Odds

  • Favorite: Cole (-200)
  • Underdog: McAfee (+140)
  • Time: ⬇️ 9 minutes (-125)

The odds being low for Adam Cole are interesting to say the least. Keep in mind that Adam Cole's odds to win this match hovered around -770 to open, as they have fallen to -200. 

It seems odd that the face of NXT and one of their greatest champions sees odds drop so low, especially against a celebrity. If WWE has future in-ring plans for Pat McAfee then there is a possibility he wins this match. Cole should win though and for odds at -200 they are actually worth considering. 

The time interval odds are also intriguing, as under nine minutes is only -125. It seems likely this match won't go for very long, so the cheaper value actually lies within the time market here.

McAfee winning should not be considered - not because he can't win, but his odds are not low enough for a win. If I'm betting on a WWE match in favor of a celebrity winning, I want odds near at least +300 to consider. At +140, there isn't great value even if McAfee pulls off the upset.

Betting Advice: Parlay Adam Cole with another bet or entertain betting the time market

NXT North American Championship Ladder Match Betting Odds

  • Favorite: Damian Priest (-118)
  • Time: ⬇️ 30 minutes -118

We have finally reached the NXT North American Championship match, which has seen a roller coaster-type of betting market for weeks now. The current favorite is Damian Priest, who actually opened with odds to win at +1100. So if you took Priest at +1100 weeks ago, congratulations you are already a winner.

Priest doesn't even need to win this match for early Priest bettors to make a profit. If you took Priest at +1100, +500 or even +225 a week ago, you should without a doubt hedge this match.

Personally, Cameron Grimes at +400 provides the best value with best chance to win. If you bet on Priest and wish to hedge, I recommend hedging Grimes. Gargano and Dream have the lowest odds to win, and probably won't win.

Bronson Reed at +320 is interesting to consider, providing the second-highest odds to win in the match. Personally, I want better odds if betting on Reed but he should be considered seriously to win despite what fans might think.

Priest is the obvious choice, so if WWE wants to play it safe than Priest is your pick. At -118 though, you probably missed the betting boat for him. Grimes is the best choice in terms of charisma and value, while Reed is the 'company workhorse' pick in this. Any of the top three between Priest, Grimes and Reed are fine picks but Priest's value has vanished and Reed winning the belt seems like a bigger long shot than the +320 odds given.

Betting Advice: Take Priest, Grimes or Reed - although I like Grimes. 

Keith Lee vs Karrion Kross Betting Odds

  • Favorite: Kross (-250)
  • Underdog: Lee (+175)
  • Title Holder to End Event: Kross (-230)
  • Time: ⬇️ 24 minutes (-118)
  • Method: Pin (-500)

Much like Damian Priest's odds, Karrion Kross saw tremendous value when odds first opened for this market. Lee was the favorite, even seeing his odds reach as high as -295. Now, Lee is the underdog and Kross is the expensive favorite.

If you took Kross weeks ago, congrats as you are the real winner here. Kross provided a cheap price tag to win, but now is far too expensive to consider. There's really only two ways to bet this match now, well three if you fancy Lee.

If you like Keith Lee here, then take him. He provides great value for how good he actually is. You can also take Kross, but again his odds are very expensive despite how certain most think he is to winning this match.

The third option for betting the match is to move into the method market. The pinfall occurring is overwhelmingly favored at -500, which is odd considering Kross has a submission finisher. It's unlikely that Lee taps out to Kross, but what about passing out due to refusal to tap?

At +300, the submission result is worth a look. I'm not saying the submission is a lock, but it definitely provides the best value on the board when betting this match. Kross has seen a submission finish in four of his last six matches as well, a strong way to book an unstoppable villain. 

Betting Advice: Avoid Kross and move to the method market for value with a submission finish at +300, banking on Lee to pass out - otherwise don't bet this match

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