A shortened schedule in the WWE sees two network events within a week, the second being this Sunday with WWE Payback. 888sport has released betting odds, which we will break down along with bettings tips for WWE bettors.
Six matches have odds, along with multiple prop bets. WWE betting is only legal in the U.K. but still fun to discuss for Americans. Here are the betting odds for WWE Payback on Sunday.
WWE Payback Prop Bets
- Number of Title Changes? ⬇️ 1.5 (+134) / Exactly 2 (-134) / ⬆️ 2.5 (+200)
- Longest Match? Mysterios vs Rollins & Murphy (-150) / Any Other Match (+108)
- MITB Cashed-In? Yes (+400) / No (-770)
There aren't many prop bets available for this event, as it's unlikely any will be added between now and Sunday. With the props given, it seems the best value on the board lies with the longest match market.
The tag team match of Rey Mysterio and his son Dominik taking Seth Rollins & Murphy has the highest odds to be the longest match of the night. Any other matches the underdog at +108, and while it's not terrific plus-value, you're still getting the field for plus-value.
It's not a lock, but feel free to take a chance on one of the other five matches taking more time to complete than the heated tag team match. If you fancy Rollins and Murphy vs the Mysterios being the longest match of the evening, -150 is also cheap enough to still take.
The number of title changes is tricky, as it doesn't include the 24/7 Championship but does include pre-show matches. Two titles changing hands is actually a lot for a WWE network event only featuring six matches (that we know of). Of those six matches, half are championship matches.
With two championships favored to change hands though, it seems both Apollo Crews and the team of Sasha Banks and Bayley are in trouble. Feel free to take the parlay of both Crews and Banks/Bayley losing at -134, instead of two separate bets for those matches.
Betting Tip: Longest Match - Any Other Match +108 / Title Changes Market - 2 -134
Baron Corbin vs Matt Riddle Betting Odds
- Favorite: Matt Riddle (-215)
- Underdog: Baron Corbin (+150)
- Time: ⬆️ 11 minutes (-125)
Matt Riddle enters his match against Baron Corbin as the odds-on favorite, making sense for multiple reasons. For -215 though, it's probably best to avoid the expensive price tag.
As for Corbin, his underdog odds aren't worth the risk. One thing that has been consistently good in Baron Corbin's career is his constant evolution in character change. He is coming up on a full year since winning King of the Ring, as his king schtick feels about all used up.
For Corbin to be considered a serious betting pick to win WWE matches moving forward, his character needs another change. Until then, it's hard to seriously bet on Baron Corbin winning big matches - despite a successful track record in doing so.
Overall, avoid this match when betting as neither superstar presents odds worth spending money on.
Betting Tip: Avoid this match
Dominik Mysterio & Rey Mysterio vs Seth Rollins & Murphy
- Favorite: Mysterios (-182)
- Underdog: Rollins & Murphy (+130)
- Time: ⬇️22 minutes (-125)
- First Tag: Rollins & Murphy (-139)
- Involved in Result (for each team): Dominik (-200) / Murphy (-215)
The fact that the oddsmakers are giving the time limit over/under 22 is quite concerning for the earlier prop bet. None the less, it's a risk worth taking. Here would actually be a good time to consider hedge betting the time limit, and taking the OVER 22 for underdog value.
If this match goes over 22 minutes then you will lose the earlier prop bet (more than likely). However, you will win this particular bet and so hedging becomes an option in regards to the time market for this match.
The Mysterio's winning seems very likely, but they are a tad expensive. Add that with the fact many think Domink will turn on Rey, it might be wise to avoid a winner here. Dominik getting the victory over Murphy is also heavily favored, which is best to avoid a well.
It seems odd that Vince would green light Dominik having to endure the longest match on the card, so again, the time market hedge strategy seems to be the best route here. The other three can easily carry Dominik over the 22 minute mark though, so don't be afraid to hedge this.
Betting Tip: Hedge Bet Time Market - Over 22 minutes at -112
Keith Lee vs Randy Orton Betting Odds
- Favorite: Split (-118)
- Time: ⬇️ 20 minutes (-139)
- Number of RKOs: ⬇️ 1.5 (-278)
Keith Lee was the favorite when the match first opened on the betting market. Now, Lee is split with Orton as the two are given an equal 54.1% chance to win. The winner here is a toss up, as odds indicate. Lee could win, only for Orton to attack signaling a McIntyre save. Also, Lee could lose, only for Orton to attack also signaling a McIntyre save.
If you have a gut feeling, go with it, but again I look towards the time market here. The concern with Mysterios vs Rollins/Murphy being the longest match on the night was this match between Lee and Orton. It seems silly that those two wouldn't be the longest match on the card, given the wrestling ability of both superstars.
Feel free to take a chance on the match going OVER 20 minutes for plus-value, which would be a great double underdog bet if you also take the prop bet from earlier. Through all the non-title matches for WWE Payback, it seems the time market is where you should be focusing your money with the odds and prop opportunities given.
As for the number of RKOs landed, avoid the UNDER as it is far too expensive. The RKO total only counts from bell-to-bell, so any RKO Orton hits after the match will not count. It seems more likely Orton will hit two or more RKOs before or after the bell rings, so for -278 feel free to pass. If Orton wins with two RKOs though, then there's value in OVER 1.5 at +190.
Betting Tip: Time Market - OVER 20 minutes at +100 / Move Market - OVER 1.5 RKOs at +190
Apollo Crews vs Bobby Lashley Betting Odds
- Favorite: Lashley (-295)
- Underdog: Crews (+200)
- Title Holder to End Event: Lashley (-278)
- Method: Submission (-167)
- Time: ⬇️ 9 minutes (-150)
Once again, the UNDER for the time market has appeal. It would seem odd this match go on for long, so consider UNDER nine minutes of match duration but that's not the best bet.
For anyone who fancies the underdog Apollo Crews, taking him to win straight up for +200 isn't bad. It does seem likely that Lashley will win however, as odds strongly indicate. If you really think Crews is going to leave Payback with the United States Championship though, also consider the match ending with anything other result than a submission or pin at +334. This would indicate the Hurt Business is caught cheating and forcing the referee to ring the bell.
There isn't a whole lot of value in this match to be honest, and so despite the value above it seems like this is a match to avoid betting on. It does seem likely Lashley wins, which are far too expensive odds across the board. Crews has not given strong promos since winning the championship, and there is a ton of intrigue with the Hurt Business.
Betting Tip: Avoid this match
WWE Women's Tag Team Championship Match Betting Odds
- Favorite: Shayna Baszler & Nia Jax (-177)
- Underdog: Bayley & Sasha Banks (+125)
- Method: Pin (-112)
- Time: ⬆️ 13 minutes (-125)
- First Tag: Bayley & Banks (-230)
- Involved in Result (per each team): Banks (-155) / Baszler (-177)
With so many directions this match can go, we need to simplify it. Let's cross off stuff we don't have to consider - such as the method market for a pin. It's very possible the match ends with a pin, but that would seem to indicate Nia getting the win.
Of the two, it seems WWE might want to let Baszler be the one to win the match - which odds indicate of happening at -177. This concerns anyone betting the method market for a pin victory. Baszler is a submission specialist with a submission finishing move as well. For the price tag of the match ending in submission at +120, those odds are worth considering.
Baszler and Jax winning at -177 should also be considered, although a bit pricey. It seems very likely Banks and Bayley drop the belts on Sunday, so their underdog odds shouldn't be considered at the low value. Baszler and Jax under -180 is worth a look for anyone brave enough to endure a somewhat expensive price tag.
The time market for this match is a bit unpredictable while the first tag market is far too expensive, although Bayley and Banks will likely see the matches first tag. The direction of this match can play out in so many different ways, but it seems fair to assume that Baszler being the one to win the belts is the most likely outcome here.
Betting Tip: Result Market - Baszler & Jax to win -177 / Involved Market - Baszler -177 / Method Market - Submission +120
WWE Universal Championship Betting Odds
- Favorite: Roman Reigns (-125)
- Title Holder to End Event: Roman Reigns (-112)
- Roman Involved in Result: Yes (-150) / No (+108)
- Concede: Braun Strowman (-455)
- Time: ⬇️ 17 minutes (-134)
WWE betting rule number one is never bet against Roman Reigns, which includes matches he's not listed to be in. Reigns is given insanely cheap odds to walk out of Payback with the Universal Championship, which WWE bettors should be jumping on now.
Bray Wyatt, however, is given odds to win the match at +105 - slightly below 50%. This indicates that the booking is not entirely locked on Roman winning. It seems very likely Roman is going to win the belt very soon, but that could also be Clash of Champions in September.
Clash of Champions marks the one year anniversary of The Fiend officially going after Seth Rollins and the Universal Championship. It seems likely WWE may want Bray to walk into that event with the belt, in which case Roman would win. That's all hypothetical however, but it is a few fair points for those considering a bet on Wyatt leaving with the belt on Sunday.
The added stipulation of 'anything goes' might also see an unclear finish, a repeated trend with The Fiend matches (Hell in a Cell, Wrestlemania, Extreme Rules). Wyatt leaving the event with the Universal Championship, regardless of the match result, has odds at +115 - which is slightly better value.
If you are considering Wyatt in any way, shape or form skip the result market and head directly to the title holder to end event market. With all that said, Roman Reigns is a cheap enough favorite to take and frankly, might end up being the best bet of the night.
There is also a running theory that Strowman lies down for Wyatt, in which case Roman NOT being involved in the match result would see good value at +108. The rumor is that Braun will in fact be going heel however, so lying down for the now babyface murderous clown seems unlikely if WWE wants to keep Strowman a villain.
Betting Tip: Result Market - Roman Reigns to win -125 / Title Holder to End Event Market - Wyatt +115